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The bond market takes the wheel

August 2026

Market Insights

August forced every narrative through one filter: the cost of money. Strong earnings and resilient activity ran up against four linked concerns: dependence on the AI capital-spending cycle, energy-driven inflation risk, a renewed Canada–U.S. trade conflict, and the rising cost of financing large government deficits. New Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh sharpened it at Jackson Hole on Aug 28: he gave no steer on rates, called commodity strength an upside inflation risk to watch, and pushed back on forward guidance. Markets were left to price a still-hawkish hold with the 30-year Treasury near a two-decade high. For Canadian investors, the mix was relatively supportive. The domestic market leans on financials, energy, and materials. However, Canada is not insulated: weaker U.S. tech leadership, higher global yields or renewed trade friction spill in quickly.

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Aviso Wealth Inc. (“Aviso”) is the parent company of Aviso Financial Inc. (“AFI”) and Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P. (“NEI”). Aviso and Aviso Wealth are registered trademarks owned by Aviso Wealth Inc. NEI Investments is a registered trademark of NEI. Any use by AFI or NEI of an Aviso trade name or trademark is made with the consent and/or licence of Aviso Wealth Inc. Aviso is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth LP, which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holding Inc. and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five Provincial Credit Union Centrals and The CUMIS Group Limited.

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