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Risk premia rising: Energy, Canada growth and Japan’s policy shockwaves

February 2026

Market Insights

Over the last month, markets have been remarkably resilient despite being pulled in three directions: Middle East conflicts have pushed energy prices back to the centre of the inflation story; growth in Canada is softening just as commodities, including precious metals, are becoming more volatile; and Japan’s rate trajectory is reintroducing global duration risk as politics and policy uncertainty heighten the risk of a broader carry-trade unwind narrative. The common thread is that the market backdrop is shifting from “smooth disinflation” to a noisier mix of supply shocks, policy and geopolitical uncertainties, and cross-asset volatility.

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Aviso Wealth Inc. (“Aviso”) is the parent company of Aviso Financial Inc. (“AFI”) and Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P. (“NEI”). Aviso and Aviso Wealth are registered trademarks owned by Aviso Wealth Inc. NEI Investments is a registered trademark of NEI. Any use by AFI or NEI of an Aviso trade name or trademark is made with the consent and/or licence of Aviso Wealth Inc. Aviso is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth LP, which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holding Inc. and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five Provincial Credit Union Centrals and The CUMIS Group Limited.

This material is for informational and educational purposes and is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax, or similar matters. This document is published by AFI and, unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of AFI. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time. Views expressed regarding a particular industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any funds managed by NEI Investments. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and risks and uncertainties often cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking information or expectations. Do not place undue reliance on forward-looking information.

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