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Risk premia rising: Energy, Canada growth and Japan’s policy shockwaves

February 2026

Market Insights

Over the last month, markets have been remarkably resilient despite being pulled in three directions: Middle East conflicts have pushed energy prices back to the centre of the inflation story; growth in Canada is softening just as commodities, including precious metals, are becoming more volatile; and Japan’s rate trajectory is reintroducing global duration risk as politics and policy uncertainty heighten the risk of a broader carry-trade unwind narrative. The common thread is that the market backdrop is shifting from “smooth disinflation” to a noisier mix of supply shocks, policy and geopolitical uncertainties, and cross-asset volatility.

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Aviso Wealth Inc. (“Aviso”) is the parent company of Aviso Financial Inc. (“AFI”) and Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P. (“NEI”). Aviso and Aviso Wealth are registered trademarks owned by Aviso Wealth Inc. NEI Investments is a registered trademark of NEI. Any use by AFI or NEI of an Aviso trade name or trademark is made with the consent and/or licence of Aviso Wealth Inc. Aviso is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth LP, which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holding Inc. and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five Provincial Credit Union Centrals and The CUMIS Group Limited.

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