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Higher yields test markets as AI and trade debates intensify

September 2026

Market Insights

September was a month in which the bond market set the tone. An oil-driven inflation shock prompted the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023, while the Bank of Canada held rates steady and long yields kept climbing, even as oil prices eased. Higher borrowing costs raise the bar for the debt-funded AI buildout, which faced its own test as markets swung in response to calls to slow development and governments took early steps toward coordinating AI rules. In Canada, trade escalation and softer labour data weighed on the outlook, while policy-backed investment in AI infrastructure emerged as a meaningful offset.

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